TOMAS UPDATE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...




A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* HAITI

* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* JAMAICA

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI

BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24

HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

COMPLETE.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS

NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA

TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON

SATURDAY.



HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE

CENTER.



THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

REPORTS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA

ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE

SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.



WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL

STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE

WARNING TODAY.



RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.